All Members,
May 2013 IIP declines by 1.6%
June CPI inflation rises to 9.87% from 9.31% for the month of May 2013
Growth in industry output, as measured in terms of IIP, for the month of May 2013 is estimated at (-) 1.6% as compared with 2.3% during April 2013. The cumulative growth for the period April-May 2013-14 stands at 0.1% as compared to 0.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The growth in the three sectors mining, manufacturing and electricity in May 2013 stands at (-) 5.7%, (-) 2% and 6.2% as compared to (-) 3%, 2.8% and 4.2% during April 2013 respectively. The cumulative growth for the period April- May 2013- 2014 in the three sectors mining, manufacturing and electricity over the corresponding year stands at (-) 4.5%, 0.1% and 5.3% respectively.
Recent growth pattern in IIP (% growth)
Industry Group | Weight in IIP | Apr- May | Apr-May | April | May |
2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2013 | 2013 | ||
Mining | 14.2 | (-) 1.7 | (-) 4.5 | -3 | (-) 5.7 |
Manufacturing | 75.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 2.8 | (-) 2 |
Electricity | 10.3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 6.2 |
Use based classification | |||||
Basic goods | 45.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | (-) 0.4 |
Capital goods | 8.8 | (-) 15.2 | (-)1.5 | 1.0 | (-) 2.7 |
Intermediate goods | 15.7 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
Consumer Goods | |||||
Consumer goods | 29.8 | 4 | (-) 1 | 2.8 | (-) 4 |
a) Consumer durables | 8.5 | 7.5 | (-) 9.6 | (-) 8.3 | (-)10.4 |
b) Consumer non-durables | 21.3 | 1.1 | 6.7 | 12.3 | 1.7 |
Overall IIP | 100 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.3 | (-) 1.6 |
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
Basic goods have grown at (-) 0.4% during May 2013 as compared to 2.1% during April 2013. The cumulative growth during April - May 2013-14 stands at 0.7% as compared to 3.2% during the corresponding period of last year. Consumer goods have grown at (-) 4% during May 2013 as compared to 2.8% during April 2013. Consumer durables have grown at (-) 10.4% during May 2013 as compared to (-) 8.3% during April 2013, while consumer non durables have grown at 1.7% during May 2013 as compared to 12.3% during April 2013.
The cumulative growth of consumer goods during Apr-May 2013-14 stands at (-) 1% as against 4% during the corresponding period last year. Consumer durables have shown a cumulative growth of (-)9.6% during Apr-May 2013-14 as against 7.5% during Apr-May 2012-13, while consumer non durables have shown a cumulative growth of 6.7% during Apr-May 2013-14 as compared to 1.1% during Apr-May 2012-13.
Some of the important items showing high negative growth during the current month over the same month in previous year include Fruit Pulp (-) 51.1%, Sugar (including sugar cubes)(-) 37.8%, Cigarettes (-)35.7%, Polyester Chips (-) 26.6%, Copper and Copper Products (-)67.3%, Boilers (-) 32.9%, Earth Moving Machinery (-) 30.3%, Sugar Machinery (-) 70.2%, Plastic Machinery including Moulding Machinery (-) 48.0%, Computers (-) 33% and Telephone Instruments including Mobile Phones & Accessories (-) 28.6%.
Some of the other important items showing high positive growth are Leather Garments (27.0%), Fuel, Aviation Turbine (32.5%), Vitamins’ (75.7%), Antibiotics & its preparations (33.2%), PVC Pipes and Tubes (31.0%), Tractors’ (31.3%), Cable, Rubber Insulated (56.6%) and Gems and Jewellery (31.3%).
Trend in IIP growth (%)
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
Capital goods have grown at (-) 2.7% during May 2013 as compared to 1% during April 2013. The cumulative growth of capital goods stands at (-) 1.5% during April- May 2013-14 as compared to (-) 15.2% during April- May 2012-13.
Trend in the growth of capital goods (%)
Source: PHD Research Bureau, compiled from CSO
June CPI Inflation at 9.87%--The all India general CPI (Combined) for June 2013 stands at 9.87% as compared to 9.31% for May 2013. The inflation rates for rural and urban areas for June 2013 are 9.63% and 10.13% respectively as compared to 8.98% and 9.65% respectively for May 2013.
Warm regards,
Dr. S P Sharma
Chief Economist
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PHD Research Bureau
PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry
August Kranti Marg, New Delhi